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AUD/USD and GBP/USD have found interim support after a week of dollar strength, with AUD/USD recovering from a low of $0.6659. Minor resistance is noted at $0.6730 and $0.6759, while GBP/USD hovers above a two-month low, with support at $1.2903.EUR/JPY continues to trade below the ¥162.89-to-¥164.24 resistance zone, with potential support between ¥161.01 and ¥160.60. A break above resistance could signal a medium-term bullish reversal.
US indices are set for historic gains, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones on track for their best run since late 2023. The ASX 200 reached a record high, driven by strong bank performance, while key economic indicators showed positive trends in retail sales and job growth.Looking ahead, significant events include the Reserve Bank of Australia's speech and the release of various PMIs in the US, Europe, and Japan, alongside the third-quarter earnings season featuring major companies like Tesla and Boeing.
US retail sales data continues to exceed expectations, with September figures showing a 0.4% increase, bolstering the Atlanta Fed's Q3 GDP growth forecast to 3.4%. This economic resilience suggests a cautious approach for the Fed regarding rate cuts, while the USD/JPY approaches a critical resistance level at 151.95, ahead of the Bank of Japan's upcoming meeting.
The ECB is set to meet, with expectations that final September Eurozone consumer price data will show a significant drop in inflation. Meanwhile, Japanese export data has shown unexpected weakness, and US retail sales reflect a shift towards more experiential spending. Manufacturing sentiment continues to indicate contraction, raising questions about its alignment with actual economic conditions.
The Nikkei 225 is under pressure after falling from a three-month high of 40,286, with support at 38,670 and 38,650. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is on an upward trajectory, aiming for a new record high of 43,176, while the NASDAQ 100 has rebounded from a low of 19,611, reaching a three-month high of 20,499.
The ECB is set to meet, with final September Eurozone consumer price data expected to show a significant drop in inflation. Meanwhile, Japanese export data has revealed unexpected weakness, contrasting with shifting consumer spending trends in the US, which still favor leisure activities. Upcoming US industrial output and manufacturing sentiment data will provide further insights into the economic landscape, amid ongoing concerns about the disconnect between sentiment and reality.
The US dollar has strengthened as the presidential election approaches, with rising odds favoring Republican candidate Donald Trump, which is seen as positive for the currency. Analysts expect a potential USD rebound by year-end, despite a modest decline in forecasts. Market confidence in a 25bp rate cut from the ECB has led to muted expectations for surprises, leaving EUR/USD vulnerable to US developments.
The U.S. dollar has strengthened ahead of the presidential election, driven by improved polling for Republican candidate Donald Trump, which is expected to favor the dollar due to potential aggressive tariff policies. Analysts predict a short-term boost for the dollar, although year-end forecasts suggest a slight decline from current levels. Meanwhile, the market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut from the ECB, with the EUR/USD pair particularly sensitive to U.S. developments.
Private savings are essential for maintaining a standard of living in retirement, with significant variations across global pension systems. Women face greater challenges due to career interruptions and lower wage growth, necessitating careful retirement planning. Early saving and investing in diversified portfolios can enhance financial outcomes, helping to bridge pension gaps.
Global M&A activity saw a 10% increase in deal value in the first nine months of 2024, reaching $1.6 trillion, despite mixed results across regions. While North America and Europe showed signs of recovery, the Asia-Pacific region hit a ten-year low, primarily due to declines in China. Stricter regulatory scrutiny has delayed over 40% of transactions, complicating the deal-making landscape.
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